ABSTRACT
The elderly population represents a high percentage of patients hospitalized for COVID-19 pneumonia and severe respiratory failure, for whom CPAP may be a treatment option. The aim of this study was to describe the CPAP support modalities and to explore factors associated with CPAP failure. In this retrospective study, 110 consecutive patients aged ≥ 75 years were enrolled. Median frailty score, baseline partial arterial pressure of oxygen to fraction of inspired oxygen ratio (P/F), and respiratory rate (RR) were 5, 108, and 30 cycles/min, respectively. Of the 110 patients that began CPAP treatment, 17 patients died within 72 h from baseline, while in 2 patients, CPAP was withdrawn for clinical improvement. Thus, of the 91 patients still on CPAP at day 3, 67% of them needed continuous CPAP delivery. Patients with RR ≥ 30 and with frailty score ≥ 5 had an odds ratio of continuous CPAP needing of 3 and 4, respectively. Patients unable to tolerate CPAP-free periods demonstrated higher mortality risk as compared to those able to tolerate intermittent CPAP (OR: 6.04, 95% CI 2.38-16.46, p < 0.001). The overall in-hospital mortality was 63.6%. Delirium occurred in 59.1%, with a mortality rate in this subgroup of 83.1%. In a time-varying Cox model, the hazard ratio of death was 2.9 in patients with baseline RR ≥ 30 cycle/min, 2.4 in those with baseline P/F < 100. In the same model, the hazard ratio of death was 20 in patients with delirium and a frailty score < 5 and 8.8 in those without delirium and with frailty ≥ 5, indicating a competitive effect between these two variables on the death risk. Conclusions: Respiratory impairment, frailty, and delirium predict treatment failure, with the latter two factors demonstrating a competitive effect on mortality risk. CPAP support may represent a feasible therapeutic option in elderly patients, although chances of a therapeutic benefit are markedly reduced in case of severe respiratory impairment, very frail baseline condition or delirium occurrence.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Italy was the second country in the world, after China, to be hit by SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Italy's experience teaches that steps to limit people's movement by imposing 'red zones' need to be put in place early by carefully identifying the cities to be included within these areas of quarantine. The assessment of the relationship between the distance from an established outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 infection with transmission-linked cases and mortality observed in other sites could provide useful information to identify the optimal radius of red zones. METHODS: We investigated the relationship between SARS-CoV-2 cases and the distance of each Italian province from the first outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Italy (the city of Lodi placed in the Lombardia region). In 38 provinces of Lombardia and neighboring regions, we performed a breakpoint analysis to identify the radius of the red zone around Lodi minimizing epidemic spread and mortality in neighboring cities. RESULTS: In all Italian provinces, a non-linear relationship was found between SARS-CoV-2 cases and distance from Lodi. In an analysis including the provinces of Lombardia and neighboring regions, SARS-CoV-2 cases and mortality increased when the distance from Lodi reduced below 92 and 140 km, respectively, and such relationships were amplified by ozone (O3) pollution. CONCLUSIONS: The breakpoint analysis identifies the radius around the outbreak of Lodi minimizing the public health consequences of SARS-CoV-2 in neighboring cities. Such an approach can be useful to identify the red zones in future epidemics due to highly infective pathogens similar to SARS-CoV-2.